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| Author | Topic: Silver prices |
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Paul Lemieux Posts: 1792 |
posted 05-11-2006 11:01 PM
  
Silver is going up in price at a steady clip. I think it is now over $14.50 an ounce. I am already starting to hear tales of horror. The owner of a seasonal shop in New Hampshire told me that on opening day, scrap dealers swept into the place with their plastic bags and scales and left with pound after pound of silver. Today a dealer at Brimfield told me she just had almost a hundred pounds of silver melted down so she could sell it as scrap. There's a lot of mediocrity out there. I don't care if that gets melted. How many recast Tiffany Strawbery serving spoons does the world need? But I hope prices level off soon and that there isn't another frenzy to scrap any and all silver in sight because the spot price goes up so much. IP: Logged |
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hello Posts: 200 |
posted 05-12-2006 07:53 AM
Your hopes are the same as mine. Everywhere I go people think I am buying for scrap, and many pieces can still be obtained for scrap or less. The only good argument that might be made is maybe it helps silver come to the market place. On second hand, many things that could be obtained for for 100 last year now cost 250-300! I was talking to a gold/silver trader (it's early I can't think of the technical term) and he said he expects it to hit 15, then to start dropping again. Let's hope he is right! IP: Logged |
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adelapt Posts: 418 |
posted 05-12-2006 08:56 AM
With still fresh memories of the last (Bunker Hunt) big ramp in the silver metal market, I think it's fair to say that along with the damaged and the mediocre going into the pot, good and historical material will go too. Things which are unrecognised as to maker or origin or use are likely to fall foul of the rush to the bank, and that's where our rich heritage of silverware is vulnerable. The other category of goods in danger is that where the weight now promises a higher return than the value of the object as an object. I'd ask anyone with an interest in this fascinating field to advise a very very careful approach to sending things off to the smelter. If it's not our heritage getting melted, it's likely that of someone else. IP: Logged |
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Paul Lemieux Posts: 1792 |
posted 05-12-2006 10:16 AM
Any scrap dealer who happens to read this should bring silver pieces to an antique silver dealer before scrapping it. There are many things that will always be worth many, many times scrap value and allowing a collector/dealer to purchase such items will benefit everybody involved. IP: Logged |
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Kimo Posts: 1627 |
posted 05-12-2006 04:28 PM
I remember the Hunt days. On several occassions I tried to get the scrap dealers to let me go through their buckets and pay them realistic prices for some the good stuff they had. Almost always they said no in a rather frosty way, that it wasn't worth it to them. The underlying sense I had was that maybe there was more than an item or two that may have had a questionable ownership when it came into their shop and they didn't want too many questions asked, or maybe they thought I might have been an undercover cop or something. It was sad to think how many tons of rare silver objects were destroyed in those years. As to the bullion price of silver these days I think it is simply an associated effect of the shooting up of gold and platinum which I am convinced is artificial and that the bubble will burst sooner rather than later bringing silver down with it. There is simply no economic basis for gold to be as high as it is given the strength of the world's economy and the huge proven reserves of gold still in the ground in so many places. IP: Logged |
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FWG Posts: 845 |
posted 05-12-2006 05:48 PM
I'm inclined to agree with Kimo as to the causes and likely forecast for the bubble. But on the other hand I was just reading yesterday some economists suggesting that if one accounted fully for inflation -- only, not allowing for other factors -- then gold should be at about $2100 an ounce. Back on the first hand, though, apparently Warren Buffet has been buying precious metals for some months, but has now dialed back his projections and started to back off. As I've written before, I've generally found the more legitimate metals buyers to be happy to let people browse their stock before scrapping -- unless they had a sweetheart deal with one or more dealers to get first pick. But the current market brings out the less scrupulous. In addition to possibly having some 'questionable' pieces, they may also have things they knowingly bought for scrap prices that they know are worth much more and want either for themselves or to sell for top dollar. IP: Logged |
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Dale Posts: 2132 |
posted 05-12-2006 08:50 PM
Maybe silver is not getting more expensive; dollars are getting cheaper. This could be related to the dollar's performance lately against the euro. IP: Logged |
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hello Posts: 200 |
posted 05-12-2006 10:35 PM
Now we are getting into hefty economics. A low dollar is not necessarily a bad thing (though in the case of the US, it is because of debt/energy prices?) I know Canadian dollar is very strong because of high energy prices. This is actually a bad thing because it's obviously bad for exports. I would say that the price of silver is a fad, because the price were so low for so long, it is just going through a high cycle. Adjusting for inflation doesn't make any sense because nowadays it's a matter of supply and demand, and with world markets totally changes dynamics of everything. There is so much silver out there it's ridiculous. Everyone just thinks it's "a good investment" because there is a lack of trust in stock markets, especially after tech crash etc.(the fact that people invested in dot com companies still bewilders me, did nobody stop to think that they were not purchases much if anything online, much less anyone that they knew?) Anyways I am running dangerously off topic. I am just thankful investing in the stock market is the least of my problems(even if I could afford to do it I wouldn't [This message has been edited by hello (edited 06-11-2006).] IP: Logged |
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sewer-rats Posts: 19 |
posted 05-13-2006 12:34 AM
They are buying beauty just to melt it down?!! That is the most disgusting thing I have ever heard! How can someone be so blind as to not see the real value in a thing of such beauty? I just got done polishing mine and every time I do I am in awe of the fine quality of the workmanship, the detail and the care taken in making an item back then. I could never destroy it for a few extra bucks. One of my bride's baskets has an animal motif. I think it was a trophy for an animal contest. It is just plated but the detail is incredible. IP: Logged |
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Clive E Taylor Posts: 450 |
posted 05-13-2006 09:32 AM
I also remember the Bunker Hunt days. Coming collecting Georgian buckles ten years ago I was amazed how disregraded they were and the low price of items such as vesta cases, vinagretes , and card cases. Fortunatly for me the price of buckles has not risen to the extent that the later three categories have, but I grieve for the loss of all the material that went in those days to the scrap heap. In particular the very big Artois buckles of the late 1770's were always scarce - their size and unfashionableness after 1790 made those with bad wear very vulnerable to trading in for other goods in the pre 1800 era.Only the big, seldom used post 1785 buckles survived both the 1800 scrap and Bunker Hunt. The survivors of the big well worn 1770-1780 ones virtually all went great Hunt Brothers massacre. I certainly cannot find any examples although contemporary literature is full of references . The poor always goes in a purge - but if only poor specimens remain - everything goes IP: Logged |
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venus Posts: 282 |
posted 05-14-2006 05:35 PM
Traditionally silver has been the "step child" so to speak to gold. However I have done research, a lot. Silver is being "used" up more so than gold. There are also fewer actual silver mines than say copper and gold, with silver being found as a by product of these other mines. Silver has more actual uses than gold. The Chinese may be part of the rise in silver and copper both, as they need these products and are not too concerned with the prices. While the economy appears strong, people are uneasy. Which tends to drive people to tangible assets. Soft dollars vs hard metals = not much of a contest in what will win. Also one expert predicted that the above ground silver will run out between 2008 and 2010. It is also possible that all these experts own stock in silver and wish to push the price up. Me, I don't know for certain what is in store,or who is correct. However I feel a need to "save" as much silver art as I can in case the worst happens. Just finished a great article at an investor resource site. Would love to post the addy, but not sure if that is something that would be allowed. One of the points made was that futures in silver are being traded on some of the stock exchanges world wide. The amount of available, above ground silver is sufficient to cover the stock, should investors demand delivery. Also many wealthy people are hedging their dollars with precious metals. Wonder what Mr Buffet knows? He chose this time to sell silver, causing a drop in price. IP: Logged |
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venus Posts: 282 |
posted 05-14-2006 07:03 PM
Just a thought..... maybe people like us could purchase silver "rounds" now and trade them for art silver later. Maybe the silver dealers would prefer the ease of the rounds over the bulkiness of say a teapot. IP: Logged |
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jersey Posts: 1203 |
posted 05-14-2006 09:52 PM
FYI-FWIW! Gold equivalent (AuEquiv) calculated using 60 ounces of silver equals 1 ounce of gold Jersey IP: Logged |
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venus Posts: 282 |
posted 05-15-2006 08:00 AM
Gold has always been thought as being at the top of the metal pyramid. Indeed it was for 6000 years. However this is far from true anymore. We live in an ever changing world. To quote and paraphrase Mark Checkan a investment analyst writing on silver.
"COMEX warehouse stocks continue to rest at uncomfortably low levels. The U.S. government continues to buy silver on the open market to meet demand of more than 8 million ounces per year for the Silver American Eagle program. Supplies of silver coming out of China have dramatically dwindled over this past year, and (whether it can be believed or not) Chinese government officials are publicly acknowledging the fact that they have exhausted their above ground supplies. If true, China is now in the same boat as the U.S. government to meet silver needs." Barclays launched an ETF for silver that immediately requires it to purchase 130 million ounces of the white metal. In a supply-strapped environment, the effect on silver prices could be astronomical. IP: Logged |
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hello Posts: 200 |
posted 05-15-2006 08:16 AM
Only thing is I only believe half of what I read... you would have to practically make a study out of it to understand it completely. I know that a few years ago I read that there was so little demand for silver that companies were not actively pursuing it and only mining as a by-product of mining gold etc. I also know that there have been a lot of analysts advising the purchase of it (they could be right but like I say without making a study of it who knows). Maybe that Mk4420 guy can explain it to us IP: Logged |
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venus Posts: 282 |
posted 05-15-2006 11:20 AM
Well we can all, wish,hope and pray for lower prices, but also arm ourselves with knowledge. The future of saving silver art lies in the hands of people like members of this forum. Even at today's silver prices, the cost of reopening mines is high. Exploration and establishing new ones, more so. It is a fact that silver is being used in ways that make it either impossible or expensive to reclaim. More so than gold. So in fact, not theory silver is being used up. In closing for me on this subject. Just because we discuss what may be, doesn't mean we (me)like it. Myself I always have a plan A B and C. IP: Logged |
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swarter Moderator Posts: 2920 |
posted 05-15-2006 11:58 AM
One of the biggest commercial uses of silver was in film emulsions. After the Hunt episode, commercial processers began recovering some of that, but the advent of digital photography has brought about a significant decline in film use and production, along with the decline in production and sales of film cameras. Eastman Kodak has scaled back their production and sales of film in the US, but not yet in Asia and other areas where use of digital photography has been slower to take hold. IP: Logged |
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dostoyevsky Posts: 7 |
posted 06-10-2006 01:47 AM
Okay ... reading all this, I wonder, why in the hell when I lately started a topic regarding how I was worried about a hallmarkless pot I recently purchased being melted down for scrap I was slapped upside the head by SMP moderators and members who said I was "silly" and told I was foolish by members who know SQUAT about antique silver to the extent that they think OSP is coated with pewter on the underside and don't have a clue as to why a hallmark from a small teapot from a famous maker might be transplanted to a larger fancier piece by a great but unknown maker because the small pot by the good maker might be sold for $2000 while the big forged-hallmark piece by the unknown maker might be sold for $30,000 with a prestigious maker's mark. Okay -- I am outta here! This website is peopled by folk with no sense of basic etiquette who don't know what the hell they are doing. Goodbye! You can play your ego trips strictly on your own. Hasta la vista. I know you will censor this message and criticize me. I don't care. I am an American, and I take freedom of speech, honesty, and intellectual competence very seriously. You - you are a freaking low-IQ sorority. Enjoy yourselves. IP: Logged |
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venus Posts: 282 |
posted 06-10-2006 07:10 AM
hmmmmm IP: Logged |
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argentum1 Posts: 602 |
posted 06-10-2006 11:52 AM
Dostoveysky please take a deep breath and reconsider. I do not recall anyone slapping you upside the head. As a rule most everyone on this site have been helpful, and reasonably courteous. Sometimes phraseology is a bit muddy but all you have to do is request clarification. No one has bitten anyones head off - I take that back. There was one person whose sole purpose in life was PROFIT and nothing else existed. We did sort of snap and growl at him. But that was because he thought we collectors and our collections to be of no value. If you wish to leave our little family then I am certain we will all wish you the best in your future endeavors/buys/collecting with or without hallmarks. IP: Logged |
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swarter Moderator Posts: 2920 |
posted 06-10-2006 12:29 PM
You can see from this and another "confession" the rationale for three of the requirements for being allowed to post outside the New Members Forum: 1. Posting photographs. New members whose knowledge and experience are unknown to the membership must be able to post photographs so we can know that they know what they are talking about. We can take nothing for granted. 2. Civility. People with preconceived notions cannot tolerate what they perceive as dissent or criticism, regardless of how poorly they have presented their case, and eventually will show their true personality. 3. Misuse of the Forums. We do not allow participation solely to allow people to research items for sale. No matter how they try to hide their motivation, it eventually comes out. Dostoyevsky is not the first and will not be the last, nor will GungaDin.
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Clive E Taylor Posts: 450 |
posted 06-10-2006 03:26 PM
I have looked at the postings on this subject (they started I think on "Hallmarks, Ethics & Philosophy) and cannot find how we have offended " Dostoevsky ". Can anyone else see any criticism which could cause such a re action. ? IP: Logged |
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swarter Moderator Posts: 2920 |
posted 06-10-2006 04:01 PM
Currently a lot of press in the US is being devoted to the fact that Road Rage is now being considered a manifestation of a psychological ailment, Intermittant Explosive Disorder as the Psychiatrists call it (inappropriately termed "IED" -- not to be confused with the other IEDs, the Improvised Explosive Devices that kill troops in Iraq). Most outbursts are supposed to be confined to home settings (child and spousal abuse, etc.) and only a few on the highways in the form of Road Rage -- nothing has been said about its frequency on the internet. Maybe this is attributable to that, or just to the fact that he cannot stand to have his vast expertise questioned or challenged in a New Members Forum by people whose knowledge he considers inferior to his own. Take your choice, or find your own explanation. But don't let it bother you - this is an open forum, and such things are bound to happen, thankfully not too often. [This message has been edited by swarter (edited 06-10-2006).] IP: Logged |
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vathek Posts: 966 |
posted 06-11-2006 08:08 AM
But back to silver prices - since Paul first posted this thread silver has really dropped in price, by about $4 oz. Does anyone have any direct evidence that even during the Hunt days that any 'good' silver was scrapped? I would like to think that the scrappers must have some basic knowledge of silver and would know a good piece when they saw one. IP: Logged |
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Scott Martin Forum Master Posts: 11520 |
posted 06-11-2006 09:06 AM
Scrappers may know the difference. But then sometimes they don’t. One of the high end silver dealers claims to have gotten his start when he was visiting one of his banking clients who happened to be a scraper. In this case the scraper didn’t have a clue and didn’t care what was in the melt bucket. The scrapper’s only interest was the profit in the metals. This was the scrappers business and this was what the scrapper knew. The scraper was busy enough doing what he knew. The scrapper humored his banker and allowed the banker to buy (for scrape $) anything he wanted but he had to be there because the scraper wouldn’t hold the pending melt for the Banker to review (even for more $). Eventually the banker became a dealer. The dealer’s contacts grew and people started to bring stuff to him before they took it to the scrapper. He continued to visit the scraper until the scraper retired and closed the scrap business. There are scrappers and then there are smelters. A smelter’s customer might be a legitimate metal smith or possibly a fence. In either case, the smelter’s customer brings to the smelter metal for melting. The metal might be genuine scrap objects or they may be stolen objects. Its not the smelters business to decide what is “good”/proper to be smelted/refined. It is the smelters job to render his customer’s metal as per the customers specifications. The smith will take away refined metal and put it to good use. The fence will take the destroyed evidence and sell it for scrap. IP: Logged |
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hello Posts: 200 |
posted 06-11-2006 12:07 PM
I just finished checking silver prices (with a google search so I have no idea if they are accurate) and silver has seemed to drop a bit lately. If this is true maybe we did start the downward trend  IP: Logged |
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vathek Posts: 966 |
posted 06-12-2006 08:00 AM
Speaking of scrap - I just bought a pair of Duchin weighted console sticks in rough shape and the silver skin is so thin you can peel it off with your hands. I wonder if people knew what they were buying when these things first hit the market? IP: Logged |
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FWG Posts: 845 |
posted 06-12-2006 06:50 PM
Handy online charts of current and historic silver bullion prices can be found at Kitco , courtesy of a smelter. I have no business with this firm, but find their charts quite useful. You can even call up daily charts going back to 1999. IP: Logged |
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t-man-nc Posts: 327 |
posted 06-15-2006 12:32 PM
I am in touch with several scrappers and for the most part they know the difference between the scrap metal and antique pieces coming in. I have bought a large amount of silver lately for scrap prices just to get the older pieces out of the melting pot. In fact the profits from collecting the junk, have funded several new additions to the collection. From others who do it as part of their business, they are buying everything for "Melt" and then pulling the valuable pieces out for resale to antiques dealers... Several folks bring in large boxes to sell and the vast majority is scrap, but you also get several pieces that you would have to pay a good bit more for if you bought them as antiques. The scrappers got so beat up by the "Art" losses from the Hunt days that they are paying attention now, or at least the ones I know... However let the prices hit 40 to 50 an ounce and they won't be able to pull the good stuff because the Margins won't support the cost. "Smaug" IP: Logged |
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jprice33 Posts: 204 |
posted 06-16-2006 05:56 AM
Have experienced attempts to purchase from "scrappers" who refuse to sell at the current scrap level regardless of what the object/s are..a few dollars over that and they're fine..very recently saved a rare large Serving Fork in Watson's "Lily" pattern from meltdown.. When Silver was hovering around $6-$7, encountered dealers who would break pieces in half if selling at "melt-value" or bringing to the scrappers...to ensure no further profits were made.. ouch! IP: Logged |
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venus Posts: 282 |
posted 06-16-2006 08:10 AM
Seems to me it might be worth while to set up a business relationship with scrappers prior to silver prices getting outrageously high. Some of you who really know what you are doing could contact museums. Find out if they will set up a special "Save the Silver" fund. Approach well to do people with money to invest, who won't sell fro scrap, but may sell in the future with the item intact. It is up to people in this forum and others like us to come up with workable plans. Any other ideas? Paul you started a much needed line of thinking. IP: Logged |
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t-man-nc Posts: 327 |
posted 06-16-2006 09:02 AM
I don't disagree with the sentiment, just the logistics.... You would think that the big refiners the most likely place to get the good pieces from, but not so…. Most of the big refiners get in large (thousands of ounces daily) shipments and they must melt each lot to determine the percentage of silver. The process starts when the lot is received, and a delivery price is assigned (if a contract price was not already applied). The lot then is sent to a weighting station, where it is unwrapped and the raw silver is weighted on commercial scales to determine the pre-melt weight. The lot is then either stored for later processing or processed at that time. The lot when processed is then melted and assayed to determine the purity. This assay purity, times the post melt weight, times the delivery or contract price, is what the scrapper gets paid on. The process is automated and very effective based on this continuous process. When you interrupt the process, that’s when the labor costs go up and hurt the productivity (amount of silver processed per labor hour). Increased costs is not a good thing to these business executives. So for the big smelters to extract the good pieces at the concentration centers creates a major disruption in the efficiencies of their respective processes that in turn breaks their cost model. So… The only logical place is from the local or smaller scrappers do you have any chance of removing the “Good” pieces from the melting pots, and these folks are in it to make money. If they are to pull out good silver from the melting pots, then they will want to get every penny from the sales price to increase their profits, this would render the plan no different from the existing process where they extract what they know about and send in the rest. The issues are, 1) they local scrappers need to be able to spot and recognize the good pieces, and 2) the price of the raw scrap must stay at a reasonable level to allow us (the collective “Us”) to be able to afford to purchase / acquire these pieces. The problem is we don’t control the prices, and what is important to me personally may not be important to anyone else, so how do you define then the good stuff…
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swarter Moderator Posts: 2920 |
posted 06-16-2006 11:57 AM
Not all silver goes to the scrappers from individuals. There are dealers who will sell to scrappers the silver that they haven't been able to sell in their shops, if the melt value is high enough. Some of these "do this reluctantly," putting their financial situation over the preservation ethic, but will sell - at the "scrap value" (usually the current spot price of silver on the markets, which is really somewhat higher than scrap) - to salve their conciences and avoid destroying things someone else wants. During the Hunt debacle, I got some really good early silver this way, buying by the ounce, rather than by the item (surprisingly there was at the time not much of a market for early silver on the West Coast). IP: Logged |
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jprice33 Posts: 204 |
posted 06-16-2006 04:12 PM
right..if there is someone local who will constantly buy the silver acquired by the Coin & Pawn shops when the value is low as well as high (the good and the common) you'll have mutual relationships built.. there do exist truly dead and saturated pieces whose resale value is completely limited... truly a struggle between preservation and business.. IP: Logged |
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venus Posts: 282 |
posted 06-17-2006 08:04 AM
This may appear a silly question...... but where do you find scrappers? Are they the junk yard people, like who my hubby sells copper wire to? Or are they the people who in high silver times go door to door or set up in motel rooms? Think the motel buyers would be on the move. IP: Logged |
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swarter Moderator Posts: 2920 |
posted 06-17-2006 11:44 AM
Look for the "we buy silver and gold" ads from (or signs in the windows of) coin and bullion dealers, pawn shops, etc. Or watch for the conspicuous newspaper ads ("we are in town for xxx days paying highest prices for coins and precious metals") from itenerant firms who blow into town for a few days, set up in rented space, and then leave. IP: Logged |
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taloncrest Posts: 169 |
posted 06-18-2006 11:34 PM
I found a refinery on the internet that I've sent most of my junk pieces to. When silver prices started to climb, I sent a small sample to try them out, and was happy with the return. I've now gotten rid of almost all of my junk. Don't worry, it was damaged common 20th century flatware pieces, and dented weighted compotes and console candlesticks. I'm glad prices have started to come down now. I've been able to afford very little in the last few months, and I'm having withdrawal symptoms. IP: Logged |
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